Have we really seen the climax of Cloud hype already? Why do I think so?
maybe they really underestimated data privacy, control and ownership issue on one hand and the passing of contractual risks through liablity and idemnity clauses for data protection...that will hinder growth of cloud...
so what about the high decibel and hig frequency campaigners of cloud have to say now....
1. IAAS: Data center consolidation....maybe we are likely to see the MIS glass house again...maybe now they just call MIS glass house with some dynamic provisioning of servers :-)..
2. PAAS: are we seeing the ISVs attempt to get back in business by trying to repackage themselves as provisioning a platform fizzled out...sybase now repositions itself as mobility ISV...oracle Forms/repoorts moving into open platforms with eclipse and java-based solutions...maybe force.com doesnt have all that horsepower as it claimed it did...nobody knows whats up here another 1-2 years down the line...
3. SAAS: we just have SFDC here....others are all our classical hosting solution providers...maybe oracle ondemand, SAp are all trying to reinvent themselves...maybe they are failing in ERP III :-)....for those who saw MRP I, MRP II, MRP III really renamed themselves to SCM....no idea where this is headed....I'm not sure if anyone is really ready for a multi-tenant, pay-per-use kind of offerings for enterprise systems yet....
What is all the fuss about utility computing through cloud? we are not going to see IT becoming like a power utility company split based on generation (H/w: IBM, HP, SUN,; S/W: Oracle, Salesforce.com, SAP, N/W: Cisco!!), transmission (ISPs and telecom service providers) and distribution (???)....and businesses out there dying to hire them on rental service for what they use....it seems to me most businesses are not even sure the value they are getting from such IT systems anymore....
What do you think?
Friday, September 23, 2011
Whats up with margins of network equiment solution providers (Ciscos and sycamores)
The margins of network companies (Cisco, Juniper, HP, Sycamore) post 2008 has dropped significantly to 15-16% from 20% just about a year ago...
1. is it due to lack of any differentiations in their core business of routers and switches leading them on a race to the bottom for their margins?
2. are we seeing the climax of hype for cloud computing whereby the growth for more businesses buying new routers and switches will not materialize....
3. Imagine if cisco has to focus only on Brics for growth...we in brics know fully well there arent enough potential to grow beyond ther 10% theatre growth cisco estimates in their analyst briefing...what about their strategy of focusing on public sector investments....we have heard enough of fiscal deficits and govt. debt burden already...
4. We see Huawei and ZTE up and coming....should we be seeing chinese domination for the next decade in this core switches and routers business....
The only way for them to get back on the margin game it seems is through software and services (cisco services growing steadily to 20%+ of their revenue for FY'11). What would it make these players something like IBM? Maybe we need another lou Gestner to make this elephant dance...Lou made the mammoth dance with his services strategy...it seems we may see cisco going the IBM way....
What do you think?
1. is it due to lack of any differentiations in their core business of routers and switches leading them on a race to the bottom for their margins?
2. are we seeing the climax of hype for cloud computing whereby the growth for more businesses buying new routers and switches will not materialize....
3. Imagine if cisco has to focus only on Brics for growth...we in brics know fully well there arent enough potential to grow beyond ther 10% theatre growth cisco estimates in their analyst briefing...what about their strategy of focusing on public sector investments....we have heard enough of fiscal deficits and govt. debt burden already...
4. We see Huawei and ZTE up and coming....should we be seeing chinese domination for the next decade in this core switches and routers business....
The only way for them to get back on the margin game it seems is through software and services (cisco services growing steadily to 20%+ of their revenue for FY'11). What would it make these players something like IBM? Maybe we need another lou Gestner to make this elephant dance...Lou made the mammoth dance with his services strategy...it seems we may see cisco going the IBM way....
What do you think?
Raodblocks/impediments to digitizing indian TV broadcasting
Indian broadcasting industry faces serious roadblocks to digitizing though KPMG survey estimates this to increase from 33% in 2010 to 64% by 2015. Nowadays, it is common to blame everything on corruption & politics...so it is not surprisingly true even here...the key impediments/roadblocks to quickly and profitably roll out digitisation:
1. Demand side effects: Subscriber costs will move up limiting slower uptake of services through Set-top-boxes/DTH. Subscribers have become too happy in paying Rs 200-250 for a boquet of popular channels through analog cables running. Probably the analog cable operators and franchisees can afford to provide these at such low cost due to underreporting of subscriber base by their franchisees :-)
2. Supply side: Increasing content development/delivery/marketing cost coupled with decreasing revenues in media (80% revenue comes from advertising in this industry but this would get strained probably due to other channels of communication) strains broadcasters margins & cashflows. This will make broadcasters wary of investing in digitization unless they are profitable. A sort of chicken-egg scenario....
3. Extraneous factors: Cables are run by politicians in some states...In others they are controlled by local goons who control which channel can be transmitted...the other interesting thing is politicians fear that digitization will bring accountability, and transparency removing any discretionary powers of state to control information reaching mass....so we will see lot of irrelevant non-issues being posed as reasons such as employment opportunities denied, poverty, last mile-connectivity, rural population affordability, minority issues, etc.
MIB has published a deadline to phases out analog transmission by 31st Dec 2013 and later created a phased roll out for cities and it seems it is delayed further... we can possible see a festering can of worms bred by unholy nexus here....
1. Demand side effects: Subscriber costs will move up limiting slower uptake of services through Set-top-boxes/DTH. Subscribers have become too happy in paying Rs 200-250 for a boquet of popular channels through analog cables running. Probably the analog cable operators and franchisees can afford to provide these at such low cost due to underreporting of subscriber base by their franchisees :-)
2. Supply side: Increasing content development/delivery/marketing cost coupled with decreasing revenues in media (80% revenue comes from advertising in this industry but this would get strained probably due to other channels of communication) strains broadcasters margins & cashflows. This will make broadcasters wary of investing in digitization unless they are profitable. A sort of chicken-egg scenario....
3. Extraneous factors: Cables are run by politicians in some states...In others they are controlled by local goons who control which channel can be transmitted...the other interesting thing is politicians fear that digitization will bring accountability, and transparency removing any discretionary powers of state to control information reaching mass....so we will see lot of irrelevant non-issues being posed as reasons such as employment opportunities denied, poverty, last mile-connectivity, rural population affordability, minority issues, etc.
MIB has published a deadline to phases out analog transmission by 31st Dec 2013 and later created a phased roll out for cities and it seems it is delayed further... we can possible see a festering can of worms bred by unholy nexus here....
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